After casually reading Keith Law’s piece on espn.com about the top 50 players in baseball under 25, I got to thinking about Derek Holland. Holland was the third Ranger on his list (behind Elvis and Feliz) and his scouting report of Holland really got me thinking. Law stated that Holland’s slider overtook his change-up as his second best offering this year, which contributed to his improvement this year. With all due respect to Law, we as Ranger fans have had the benefit of watching Holland far more than Law or any of the scouts he trusts so I’m going to go off the keen scouting eye of one Ross Lindsey to push my analysis.
Holland’s present as well as his future development isn’t in his slider, that has always been his second best pitch. What I’ve noticed this year, especially late in the season, is that Holland was at his best when he was commanding his fastball (duh) and mixing ALL his pitches. The pitch that stands out to me as the pitch that could make Derek great is his curveball (which Law didn’t mention). When Derek was struggling in the playoffs, he wasn’t locating his fastball, but his most successful pitch, with break and location, was his curve. He was using it sparingly, but it wasn’t just a “show me” pitch, opposing batters were caught looking for a strike just about every time he threw it, yet his still used it just sparingly.
We all know that as Derek’s mid 90’s (from a lefty!!) fastball goes, so does the Dutch Oven. If he has that pitch alone he is capable of keeping the Rangers in the game regardless. If he is throwing his slider for strikes as well he is capable of giving the opponents fits. If he can throw his curveball the way he did in the playoffs then he could be World Series Derek Holland every time out. Law clearly believes that Derek has a decent change-up, but in my mind that is his fourth best pitch, which is supported by fangraph’s pitch type values. The development of Derek’s secondary offerings is a huge part of what is helping Derek inch closer to his ceiling as a pitcher, but as we all know his command is what will take him from young flame throwing lefty to all-star pitcher. In the second half of the season, and especially in the World Series all those dreams we had about the Dutch Oven started to become a reality.
