The 2013 season will be a year that the Texas Rangers expect to compete for a World Series championship. With several prominent free agents, and several star players coming back from injury, the roster is a question mark at this point. Will Josh Hamilton be back? Where will Jurickson Profar be? What will the starting rotation look like? How will the back end of the bullpen shape up? At this point there is no way to tell for sure, but that doesn’t mean we can’t speculate!
First off we’ll need to asses which of our free agents we will retain and which will move on. We have already heard the typical “I want to be here” talk from Josh Hamilton, Mike Adams, Mike Napoli, and Ryan Dempster. I’m glad to hear that, these are good players who have produced at a high level over the course of their careers. However, does anyone ever come out and say that they can’t wait to leave? Mike Adams in the past has said he wants to close, but by his standards he had a down year, he finished the season hurt, from a fairly significant injury no less, and he is 34 years old with little closing experience. I would expect that he will re-sign for a one year contract with a mutual option, to prove he is healthy and gives himself a chance to prove it and get back on the market to try and get a big 3 year deal. I think Mike Napoli stays here, either on a one year deal to boost his value, or a $9-10 million dollar a year deal for around 3 years. I don’t think Dempster will stay, with the Colby Lewis extension, once he has fully recovered that is his starting spot, plus I think Dempster much prefers the National League. I’d be surprised if Dempster doesn’t get a 3 year deal somewhere (more than the Rangers would want to give anyway),and I almost expect him to be donning Dodger Blue. He is really close with Ted Lilly and LA should give him a chance to win. Josh Hamilton. Josh Hamilton. The one hundred million dollar plus question is what happens to Josh Hamilton. He has always voiced his desire to stay, but also that he wants to be paid fairly. If you look at the last 3 weeks, you expect the Rangers to just wish him good luck and not even consider giving him the red carpet treatment. However, if you look at the whole body of work you see the Superstar Josh Hamilton. I think cooler minds will prevail, he isn’t a free agent for another month, and I think the Rangers will make him a genuine offer of $22-$26 million a year for 4-5 years, plus a vesting option based on games played over the last year or two of the contract. Does that get a deal done? That depends on the market. Is there a team out there willing to give him a 6, 7, 8 year deal with his age, injury, and substance abuse history? Who knows. Another wild card is the owners, who said last December that they weren’t all that interested in Prince Fielder because they would much rather have Josh Hamilton long term. Who says the owners don’t pull a Mike Ilitch and match whatever offer Josh gets? I’m not saying I expect that, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Believe it or not, but we have other free agents of importance to discuss. Geovany Soto is arbitration eligible for one more year, but with his $4 plus million dollar contract in 2012 and lack of production, I fully expect him to be let go, opening one, and potentially two holes at the catcher position depending on what happens with Napoli. Scott Feldman is a shoe I to have his $9.5 million dollar option declined, and I expect him to look for a full time starting role somewhere (don’t be surprised to find him in Kansas City next year). Yoshi Tateyama has been cheap, but as a ROOGY he isn’t worth the roster spot he’d occupy. Roy Oswalt has a slightly better chance to be on the Rangers in 2013 than I do, the same can be said for Mark Lowe. However, there is one more key free agent that should receive the attention of JD and Co, and that’s 2011 whipping boy Koji Uehara. He has always been fond of Baltimore and my understanding is that he was preferring to return there, but with questions going forward with bullpen depth, Koji becomes an important piece of this ballclub. I think we would have to overpay a little bit to keep him here, but I could see him staying for a 2 or 3 year deal for somewhere between $4-5 million a year.
Once we deal with our own free agents we have to construct our roster to replace those who have left, as well as decide what players under contract still have a place with the team. The starting rotation is, as always, going to be a focal point. I think this team believes that they have the top of the rotation guy they have been after in Yu Darvish, but you can never have too many elite 
arms. For now you have 3 spots set in stone in Darvish, Harrison, and Holland. Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz are expected to miss the beginning of the year returning from injuries, so that leaves 2 open spots. Alexi Ogando has expressed a preference to be a starter, and he succeeded there in 2011. I expect that he would have to earn his way back, but would man a fourth spot. That would leave one spot open to competition, a trade, or a free agent signing. I don’t see the Rangers trying to spend $13-$15 million a year on a Kyle Lohse type pitcher. I think they would look at going after Zack Greinke (if Hamilton is not re-signed) or make a trade for a starting pitcher. There’s no telling what names would be available, but Josh Johnson would be sure to be one. He is signed to a fairly priced contract, but is a free agent after the season. Florida was interested in the Rangers prospects before the trade deadline so I would expect them to be interested again. Names that could be involved in a trade (for Johnson, or whatever top tier pitchers may be available) could include Mike Olt, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Mitch Moreland, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, or even Profar.
Once the rotation situation is handled, the bullpen will need to be shored up. The Rangers have Joe Nathan to be the ninth inning guy, but the bridge from the starters to Nathan are somewhat of a question mark. Even if we are able to retain Koji and Mike Adams there will still be questions. If Ogando is moved back into the rotation who fills the 7th inning role? Is Mike Adams healthy? After a terrific first half Robbie Ross seemed to have trouble finding the strike zone in the second half, can he be relied upon? Can Tanner Scheppers step up to fill a late inning role? I have confidence in Scheppers and Ross, but I would much prefer one more established late inning reliever to shorten ballgames. Joel Peralta of the Rays comes to mind.
How will the offense stack up? It starts with Josh Hamilton. If he comes back you have your three hole hitter. Whether he admits it or not, I think the contract year messed with his head, and I thought despite the statistics saying otherwise, this was Josh’s worst healthy season with the Rangers. If he comes back I would expect a much more relaxed, consistent Josh as opposed to the highs and lows of 2012. However, there’s no guarantee that we see Hamilton in the opening day lineup. Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler all took a step back last year, and Mitch Moreland once again dropped off in the second half. The platoon of Craig Gentry and David Murphy paid big dividends for the 
Rangers, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or both of them traded. I expect Michael Young to have a Derek Jeter-esque bounceback, not saying he will play like Jeter did in 2012, an incredible story after it looked like his bat was quickly deteriorating, but I believe that Young will look more like his prime years in 2008-2010 than his near career best 2011 and by far career worst of 2012. I expect Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar to play key roles for the Rangers in 2013… eventually. I think they both begin the year in AAA Round Rock to get consistent playing time. A team with World Series aspirations probably will not stick two rookies in their lineup expected to play key roles. I believe that the Rangers will try to lock Elvis up to a long term deal, and if it doesn’t happen I expect them to test the market with Elvis while his trade value is at its absolute highest. If they wait until the season starts his value will start to go down considerably. With Profar waiting in the wings, they can afford to trade Elvis to upgrade another position, be it Justin Upton for a middle of the lineup bat and corner outfielder, or a legitimate ace caliber pitcher in David Price. If Mike Napoli is let go there have been rumors that the Rangers have had contact with Toronto regarding catchers J.P. Arencibia and Travis d’Arnaud. However, as the Rangers learned from the Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, Ramirez days, not all highly regarded catchers pan out. This team made it’s World Series runs with established veterans behind the plate, and I would be far more comfortable keeping Mike Naploli around.
There is a lot of uncertainty heading into the off-season this year. This team could look very similar to the team we’re used to, or there could be some radical changes all over the roster. Either way, Jon Daniels and his staff have proven that no one will work harder than they will to make sure that the team they put on the field will be the one best positioned to win. From there we can only hope the results are closer to those in 2010 and 2011 than the ones we witnessed over the past six months.
You can find Ross Lindsey on Twitter @mavsfan1310
