As we all know, the AL West expanded during the off-season to include the Rangers former National League in-state rival the Houston Astros. The Astros are making the switch at a really bad time for them, in my opinion. They are re-building as a franchise and the team has just changed hands from the previous owner to a new owner. They have also not fared well over the past few seasons in a division that is a lot easier than the AL West. That being said, I do not think that they will be a complete failure in the AL, I just don’t see them being very good right off the bat.
The Rotation:
The Astros starting rotation will not leave many major league rosters shaking in their boots, but every major league pitching staff can beat you on any given night, we have seen that a lot in the past. The list includes Phillip Humber, who is from my area of the world (Tyler, Texas) and pitched a no-hitter for the White Sox last season, and also Eric Beddard, a man that the Rangers are very familiar with. It also has some young guys with not a lot of major league experience.
1. Bud Norris RHP – Bud has started 97 games in his professional career, and all of them have been with Houston, so, all of them up to this point have been in the National League. In 2009, Norris had his career high in wins with nine, but he also lost ten games that season. All in all he is 28-37 with a career 4.42 ERA. He has more than twice the strike-outs that he does walks, so he does not give up a lot of free passes. This will be his fifth major league season, so I look for him to be able to adjust to the American League style of play and be alright during the season. Seeing that he has to face the Rangers, the Angels, the Yankees, the Tigers, The Rays and other lineups that he is not used to, I do not see him winning more than 10 games in the 2013 season.
2. Lucas Harrell RHP In 2010 and part of 2011, Lucas pitched for the Chicago Whitesox. He did not fare well there, I don’t know if it was because it was the AL or because he was young and not ready, but in his eleven games (only three starts) with the Sox, he had a combined ERA of 5.08, walked eighteen and struck out twenty. He did better with the Astros, posting a 3.61 ERA in thirty eight games (thirty four starts). He walked eight five while striking out one hundred and forty five. Better.The Astros are counting on him to be their second starter out of the gates, and I see no reason why he won’t be okay. He won eleven games in 2012, and he will probably win nine to eleven this season.
3. Phillip Humber RHP Humber was added during the off-season and is used to pitching in the American League. Most of us remember that he threw a no
hitter in 2012 with the White Sox, and that is probably all that most of us know about him. He has been in and out of the majors since 2006. He pitched in two games in 06 with the Mets, then he pitched in three, five, eight and eight with the Mets, Twins and Royals over the next four seasons. He then found a home with the White Sox in 2011, pitching in twenty-eight games in 2011 and twenty-six games in 2012. His only complete game is the no-hitter that he threw. He has around a two to one strikeout to walk ratio, and he gives up around one hit per inning. Not a bad young choice for a number three starter for a team that is growing. His highest win total is nine in a season, and I have a hard time seeing him top that this season. I say he wins eight games in 2013.
4. Alex White RHP Alex made his major league debut in 2011 with the Cleveland Indians, where he posted a 3.60 ERA in three starts. He was then traded to the Rockies during the season and there he started in seven games and posted a much higher ERA of 8.42. He is only 24 years of age and has his whole career ahead of him. I am not sure what this switch to the AL West will do for him, but I think it is going to be tough the first year. I don’t look for Alex to be in this rotation for the whole season, I think he will be replaced at some point to work on some things down in the minor leagues. I would put Alex at five wins tops.
5. Brad Peacock RHP I couldn’t help but notice that the Astros do not have a left handed starter listed in the bunch. Brad Peacock has only thrown in a handful of major league games (3 to be exact) and they were all with the Nationals. He started two of those games and in twelve innings pitched he posted a sub one ERA. Brad looks like he has a lot of potential and could be a good major league pitcher in the future, but we do not have enough stats to go on at this point. I think the AL West is probably going to eat a guy like this up when he gets out there the first few times.
I think that is probably why the Astros website have Eric Bedard listed on the starting rotation as well. Bedard is a veteran and right now he is a non roster invitee. He has not given up a run yet in spring training and so I think he will make the team. Look for him to take over for one of the two young guys pretty quick.
The Bull Pen
Well, I would like to give you Astros fans some good news about your bull pen, but I cannot. In looking at them for this piece, I do not believe that they are
going to be a lights out bunch. Closer Jose Veras has had seventeen save opportunities in his 6 year career, and he has executed just five of those saves. He also has a career ERA of 4.01. Guys like Hector Ambriz and Josh Fields have little to no major league experience and some of the others have not fared well in the past. I have seen groups like this bond together and do well, but the Astros are in building mode and I think that it shows the most in their inexperienced bull pen and lack of pitching depth. I believe they will look like the Rangers pen between 2006-2008 or so, when they were really good sometimes and really bad other times.
Offense and Defense –
Carlos Pena may add some pop as the Astros first ever designated hitter, I think he still has some gas left in the tank. Other than him and maybe Rick Ankiel, there is not a ton of experience or pop on this team. The Stros will probably play some small ball to try and get runners home, as I do not believe they will be breaking any records with home-runs in the 2013 season. As far as their defense goes, I do not see them as a team that makes a ton of errors, so they should be pretty solid, but not great.
So where do I see the Astros finishing this season? Well, in last place of course. I see them on the verge of a 100 loss season, but not quite getting there. I say the Astros go 65 and 97, and finish last in the AL West. Welcome to the AL boys.
Up Next: The Seattle Mariners
