Despite what the local media may lead you to believe, there are nine players on a baseball diamond at a time, and they all can’t be Michael Young. Some would even argue that the most important of those nine players is the gentleman who stands on the most elevated part of the field that does things the human body wasn’t really designed to do. This person is the pitcher. After losing Clifton Lee to the Phillies, the Rangers appear to be closer to a playoff team than a World Series contender. With Lee gone, what can we look for as far as our starting rotation is concerned in 2011?
C.J. Wilson 
C.J.’s breakthrough last year was a surprise to many, but the elements were certainly there to be a very good starter, it was just how it would play out. Last year C.J. went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 170 Ks in 204 innings. Some would think that those are lofty standards and anticipate a regression.
Best case scenario: If C.J. can stay healthy (which shouldn’t be a problem, but the whole reliever to starter thing scares some people) there’s no reason he can’t repeat his success, especially with a potential huge payday coming next winter. If C.J. can limit his walks he could very well improve upon his breakout 2010. 215 IP 3.00 ERA 1.10 WHIP 175 Ks
Realistic scenario: I could see a regression here, but not by much. C.J. is a competitor and very, very smart. I look for something like last year. 200 IP 15-10 3.50 ERA 1.25 WHIP 160 Ks
Colby Lewis 
You can pretty much say about Colby what I just did about C.J. He had question marks coming in, but he was very successful in Japan and always had a good arm, it was more about putting it all together. In 2010, he went 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 196 Ks in 201 innings. Colby was a rock in the rotation, he was very consistent and kept the team in pretty much every game. His record wasn’t so sparkling based on low run support and high pitch counts.
Best case scenario: Colby was ridiculous in the playoffs, giving up 5 ER in 26.1 IP, pitching at his best when it counts, shutting down the Yankees in the AL clinching game and getting the Rangers only win in the World series. You may also be surprised to know that Colby Lewis is the only pitcher in Ranger history to win a home playoff game. My point to this is that Colby proved to be a big game pitcher and had success doing it. He can strike out a lot of guys, but he can get his pitch count up as a product of those Ks and more walks than you’d like to see. Like C.J., if he can knock down those walks he could have a VERY good year. 205 IP 18-8 3.20 ERA 1.05 WHIP 210 Ks
Realistic scenario: Colby had a great year, but there was room for improvement. Maybe I’m blindsided by how he performed in the playoffs, but I think he’s for real. 200 IP 14-9 3.50 ERA 1.20 WHIP 200Ks
Derek Holland 
Wonderboy has flashed brilliance at times and he seems to be overlooked in the media and by the casual Ranger fans. His numbers last year aren’t spectacular: 3-4 4.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 54 Ks, in 57.1 innings. They are however, a big improvement over his rookie year, when he started strong, but faltered at the end posting an ERA in the 6.00’s. Back to last year, Holland hurt his knee on the first day of workouts last year which set him back and ticketed him to AAA to get caught up to speed before joining the big club when needed. On his first start in 2010, Holland gave up 5 hits and a walk in six scoreless innings, while striking out 7 A’s. He was pitching well before trying to pitch through some fluke shoulder injury in Minnesota where his velocity and stuff were way down. Holland has had flashes of brilliance, but if he’s healthy and given a normal starting role Holland has a chance to finally come through on his promise.
Best case scenario: If Holland can stay healthy and pitch every 5th day the Rangers do have an all-star caliber, hard throwing left hander. He needs to stay focused and avoid his wild bouts and stop leaving the ball up, but those are things that I think would work themselves out over a full season. 180 IP 15-10 3.50 ERA 1.25 WHIP 180 Ks
Realistic scenario: Holland will have his growing pains, but should cement his spot in the rotation. 150 IP 12-10 4.00 ERA 1.35 WHIP 130 Ks.
Tommy Hunter 
I feel bad for Tommy Hunter. If he were around in the mid to late 90’s he would be revelled as one of the great Ranger pitchers, instead he’s seen as a back end of the rotation guy and that’s about it. Maybe it’s the girth, maybe it’s because if you squint he somewhat looks like Rick Helling. I don’t know what it is, but I see them as similar pitchers, just different eras and everyone has fond memories of Helling. Anyway, Tommy is a bulldog. He goes about his business, he gets outs and he gets you innings. He doesn’t have a hard fastball, he doesn’t have an out pitch, but he gets by with four average or better pitches and keeps your team in most games. He doesn’t strike out many guys, but he doesn’t walk many guys either. Pretty solid back end starter if you ask me. Tommy finished 2010 with a 13-4 record with a 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 68 Ks in 128 innings.
Best case scenario: You could argue that the last two years have been best case scenarios. He goes out and wins games. Not the best peripherals, but he gets results. He’s not a big upside guy, but he makes the most of what he has. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark just a little more would help. 200 IP 18-10 3.50 ERA 1.20 WHIP 120 Ks.
Realistic scenario: The last two years he’s been pretty consistent. He faded a little bit down the stretch, but as he continues to get older and gain experience I think he’ll be able to remain strong through the season. 180 IP 4.00 ERA 1.30 WHIP 100 Ks.
Brandon Webb 
Does the expression “Ace in the hole” apply here? There was a place in recent history where Brandon Webb was one of the elite pitchers in baseball without having a hard fastball. However, after throwing 4 innings the last 2 years total there is no guarantee that he’s still that same guy. There are some who say that Webb is a less risky sign than Rich harden a year ago, but that remains to be seen. Webb claims to be at full strength and ready for Spring Training. Before Michael Young became baseball’s biggest soap opera, Webb would have been the #1 story to watch when the team reports to Surprise, Arizona, but now he’ll have to settle for second, for now at least.
Best case scenario: We can dream a lot here can’t we? Absolute best case scenario is that Brandon Webb is full recovered, his fastball still has nasty sink, his changeup is still plus, and he has his same command from two plus years ago. If that’s the case, Cliff Lee’s departure isn’t as devastating as first imagined. 180 IP 3.20 ERA 1.10 WHIP 150 Ks
Realistic scenario: I think Webb will be healthi(er) this year, but I don’t know if he’ll be quite what he was. That’s not saying he can’t come in and eat some innings for you. After throwing 4 innings in 2 years I think it’d be a little too much to ask for 200 innings or maybe even 180, but he should be able to last 6+ innings in the games he does start, however many that’ll be. 140 IP 4.25 ERA 1.30 WHIP 100
