Neftali Feliz
I want Neftali to be a starting pitcher for the rest of his career. As a 22 year old with an 80 fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale, he profiles as an elite closer, which we’ve seen. But when you’re throwing one inning at a time, there’s no need to throw a lot of your secondary pitches. Therefore, people argue that he can’t start, because he has one pitch and only one pitch. Feliz has a plus potential slider and changeup, but he needs the chance to develop them. Why not let him be the 5th starter out of the gate, take his lumps as he gets adjusted to starting again and letting his secondary pitches develop, and then have a top of the rotation starter from 2012 going forward? What’s more valuable, 200 dominant innings a season or 80?
Best case scenario: Neffy starts in the rotation, struggles to get through 5 innings his first 5-8 starts, then starts to click in early summer, then becomes a Josh Johnson/Justin Verlander type ace pitcher. By the time the playoffs roll along you have one of the strongest rotations in the American League, if not all of baseball. 165 IP 4.00 ERA 1.20 WHIP 170 Ks
Realistic scenario: Neftali Feliz is one of the best closers in baseball in 2011. Boring, I know.
Scott Feldman 
Remember back in 2009 when Scooter won 17 games and was the surprise of the team? I think we all knew he wasn’t going to win 17 games every year, but he certainly had a great cutter, a really good curve, and 2 other average pitches. That’s not an ace, but he could certainly eat innings and win games! Well, his biggest question has always been can he succeed without striking out at least a batter every other inning? Last year showed that if you walk a fine line when you can’t strike people out. His cutter was nowhere near where it was in 2009 and that was the key to his success, as his numbers showed going only 7-11 with a 5.48 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and only 75 Ks, in 141.1 innings.
Best case scenario: In a perfect world, Feldman would get his cutter back and be able to repeat his success of 2009 and get a lot of outs on the ground. With the arms ahead of him now and him recovering from surgery I think he’s probably the 6th or 7th starter right now so he’d be a long reliever/spot starter. 100 IP 4.00 ERA 1.25 WHIP
Realistic scenario: He probably is the long man, spot starter, but how many innings he gets will be dependent on his cutter. Can he regain the pitch? If so then he should be a very successful long reliever, if not he could be “on the disabled list” a few times. I don’t believe he has any options left, but I do know he is overpaid. 65 IP 4.85 ERA 1.50 WHIP 35 Ks
Dave Bush 
Dave Bush is in an interesting boat, because if he doesn’t make the team out of Spring Training then he has the option to take free agency. Honestly, a lot of things would have to go right (wrong) for him to make the team. If he’d accept an assignment to Oklahoma City and take over in case of injuries, then I think he’s a great addition to the organization, but if I were him I’d probably look for a big league job to start the season, and you know what they say about pitching..
Best case scenario: Bush is injury insurance and does what he has through his career, fill in the rotation as a guy who can eat some innings, doesn’t walk many batters, but can get hit. 60 IP 4.25 ERA 1.25 WHIP 40 Ks
Realistic scenario: Bush doesn’t make the team out of Spring Training and signs on somewhere else.
Michael Kirkman 
I think Michael Kirkman just may be the sneakiest guy in the Rangers organization. He was drafted in 2005 and had control issues, but worked them out to an extent and snuck his way up the organizational charts before breaking out last year in AAA. There were some AAA managers last year who even said that they liked Kirkman’s stuff better than Derek Holland’s, and Holland was filthy in his brief stay in Oklahoma last year. Kirkman has four average or better pitches, including a low to mid 90’s fastball and a plus slider. The curve and changeup need work, but that’s been his priority this off-season. He was very good out of the bullpen in 2010, striking out 16 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16.1 innings. If he can limit his walks, he could be a very good left handed starting pitcher in the big leagues.
Best case scenario: Kirkman could come out this Spring showing improved command and an improved curve and take the Cactus League by storm. If he does this he could win the 5th spot and really surprise some people. 160 IP 3.80 ERA 1.30 WHIP 145 Ks
Realistic scenario: Kirkman has a chance to make the team as the 5th starter, but the odds are against him. He does have a very realistic chance to make the team out of Spring Training as a long reliever. However, the most realistic option is he starts the season out in AAA and will be one of the first pitching call ups. Depending on the Bush and Feldman situations will determine when that may be. 60 IP 3.75 ERA 1.30 WHIP60 Ks. Yes these may look better than the “best case scenario” but this also projects him spending a majority of his big league time out of the bullpen where his stuff plays up.
Matt Harrison 
Harrison was the #3 prospect in the Braves system when he came over in the Teixeira deal and his injury is what netted the Rangers Beau Jones in the deal. Maybe that was foreshadowing, because it seems like Harrison has had a problem staying healthy. Harrison had some very promising starts his rookie year on his way to a 9-3 record, but he hasn’t done a lot to improve on that. Last year his velocity was up and his peripherals were improving, but his strikeout to walk ratio was a putrid 46:39. He does have decent stuff, but at this point he’s got to get results or else he’ll just be another lefty long reliever. On the bright side for him though, he is a lefty so he’ll always get chances.
Best case scenario: He cuts down his walks and can eat some innings and earn some spot starts. 60 IP 4.00 ERA 1.30 WHIP 40 Ks
Realistic scenario: He shuttles back and forth between AAA and the big leagues, but starts out battling Feldman for the long man role. 30 IP 5.15 ERA 1.60 WHIP 15 Ks.
Alexi Ogando 
Ogando’s situation prior to last year is well documented, but last year he started and relieved last year in the minors. He threw 30.2 innings down on the farm before tossing 41.2 for Texas, and another 6 innings in the playoffs. I bring this up because it is a huge injury red flag to really bump up a young player’s innings. I think that Ogando has the stuff to start, although he has never truly been a starter. He has a hard mid 90’s fastball, a slider that flashes plus and a good changeup. I’m very skeptical that he could make the transition into a starter, just based on years and years of a weak workload, I think he’d either wear down early or get hurt. You can’t argue with his results, but he could be dominant out of the pen for years if his experiment in the rotation doesn’t pan out.
Best case scenario: He could very well make the team out of Spring Training if he can get stretched out and show the ability to keep his stuff deep into games. If that were to happen, I think the Rangers would be VERY cautious with him, giving him scheduled starts off and rest him over chance they get. 140 IP 3.75 ERA 1.25 WHIP 125 Ks
Realistic scenario: Like Feliz, he’s likely to be a right handed set up man or even the closer if Neftali makes the rotation. Either way, he’ll probably be a stalwart at the back of the bullpen. 60 IP 2.25 ERA 1.00 WHIP 70 Ks
Omar Beltre 
Like Ogando, Beltre’s story is well documented. Beltre however, is 2 years older than Alexi and wasn’t nearly as impressive in his very brief introduction to big league hitters. Watching him pitch for the Rangers, his stuff was good, he just left too many balls up and struggled to hit his spots. He also looked like he was nervous, which is to be expected considering his journey. The Rangers seem to be grooming him as a starter, at least to begin with, but I think ultimately he ends up in the bullpen. He has a good hard fastball which should play up best in short spurts.
Best case scenario: He could come in and make a few spot starts next year, and I would certainly anticipate improved results based on stateside experience alone. If he does well in his potential spot starts he very well could earn a more definitive role, probably in the bullpen. 40 IP 4.25 ERA 1.30 WHIP 40 Ks
Realistic scenario: With the depth in power arms this organization has developed I think Beltre would really need to impress some people in the Spring to jump up the order to receive a call up. There are a lot of more established arms likely to get a spot start ahead of him, but I do expect him to get some innings in the pen. 25 IP 5.00 ERA 1.50 WHIP 20 Ks
Eric Hurley 
I can’t think of any Ranger prospect so snake bitten by multiple injuries more so than Eric Hurley. You can argue for Ruben Mateo, but that was just one injury that cost him his career, Hurley has suffered one after the other. Some people forget how good of a prospect Hurley once was, with the low to mid 90’s heater and above average slider. If you look at his numbers in 5 starts in 2008 you don’t get a grasps of what he was really doing. He went 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but those numbers are skewed by his final start of the season before he was shut down with a shoulder injury. Through 4 starts, he was 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 22.2 innings and was coming off his first career victory, a 5-1 win over the eventual World Series Champion Phillies in which he gave up 1 run in 5.2 innings. He got hurt and went on the DL, the came back July 27th against the A’s and got shelled for 6 runs and 2 bombs in 2 innings. He clearly wasn’t healthy that game and was shut down, ultimately for the year. He’s battled injury after injury since then, including a torn rotator cuff and a broken wrist, but he dominated the Arizona Fall League this last October. He has a chance to prove he’s healthy in the Spring and get back in the Rangers long term plans, but he has to stay healthy.
Best case scenario: Hopefully he is completely healed and can impress in the Spring Training, start the year at Oklahoma City and earn a spot in the rotation at some point. The talent is there to be a major league starting pitcher, he just has to find an opening. 100 IP 4.25 ERA 1.35 WHIP 70 Ks
Realistic scenario: The team takes it slow with Hurley, starting him off with strict pitch counts before letting him turn it loose. He will probably spend most of the year in AAA unless he proves he’s back and ready to go. 30 IP 4.50 ERA 1.50 WHIP 18 Ks
Tanner Scheppers 
People don’t seem to talk about his shoulder being a ticking time bomb as much anymore. I don’t know if pitching a full season answered some questions or if people got so wrapped up in the Rangers trying to develop him as a starter that they got too distracted to discuss the injury. Fact of the matter is that many scouts and injury experts think that it’s only a matter of time before Scheppers blows out his shoulder, and if that does or does happen is anyone’s guess. He has a great mid 90’s fastball that can hit triple digits and plus power curve. His changeup is suspect and that’s the only thing standing in the way of people considering him a potential ace caliber starting pitcher. If he develops the change to average or better, he’s going to be a stud. If he doesn’t, he has all the ability in the world to be a shutdown closer. Either way, it’s a nice situation to have.
Best case scenario: Scheppers starts in AAA and develops his changeup enough that he gets the call to start in the big leagues. 80 IP 3.50 ERA 1.30 WHIP 80 Ks
Realistic scenario: Even if Scheppers develops the changeup enough to warrant a starting gig, he’ll probably be on the Neftali Feliz 2009 game plan, come up at some point and contribute to the Ranger’s bullpen. 40 IP 3.00 ERA 1.20 WHIP 50 Ks
There are more pitchers who reasonably could start for the Rangers this year, but the likelihood of it being more than a spot start aren’t likely, so I won’t go into detail on their potential performances. These pitchers include, but aren’t limited to: Seth McClung, Zach Jackson, Ryan Tucker, and even Martin Perez.
There is a lot of potential to have a downright dominant rotation going into the 2011 playoffs. However, going into the 2011 season there are question marks, but unlike in previous season these questions marks come with TREMENDOUS upside. My dream scenario to start the season would be a rotation consisting of C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Brandon Webb, and Neftali Feliz. Two young guys with a high ceiling, one former Cy Young winner, and two guys who have proven they can dominate at times in the playoffs. Fast forward 7 months and my Playoff rotation would be Webb, C.J., Colby, and Feliz with Holland your long man or power lefty late in games. This is barring any trades to bring in a Greinke (if Milwaukee tanks), Liriano, or some other front of the rotation caliber pitcher who could become available.
