Normally when a team is a seller at the trade deadline, the team actually sells something to build for the future. Your Texas Rangers made no headlines yesterday as the trade deadline came and went. Many are saying today that is a good thing, because we didn’t give anything away. They could be right, but if you look around the farm system the Rangers do not exactly have major league ready talent available. In fact, most of the guys we keep reading about as highly rated are at least a year, and maybe two years away from seeing the show.
There is all kinds of talk about Joey Gallo, and it seems pretty clear this kid has serious potential. However, with a .272 BA at AA Frisco, and not even a full year at that level, it would be highly suspect to bring this kid up. Yes, it has been done before, I give you Pudge Rodriguez, and Mike Trout as prime examples. The difference is that Pudge had amazing defensive skills and an electric arm, and catchers are not expected to hit .300 and knock in 25 HR in year one. Trout was batting over .370 in AA ball. Gallo might be ready, but why risk it, when finishing out this year, and not using that all important 3-year option window which is much more valuable. He will be there in spring training, and lets see how that goes, then talk about the next Babe Ruth, so put away the anointing oil before someone gets hurt. After all Michael Choice was suppose to be major league ready, but that sub .175 BA shows otherwise. He found out that the curve balls in the show move.
The real concern is still pitching, unless you think the Astros reject Jerome Williams is a realistic answer. There are 3-prospects with the team now in Nick Tepesch, Miles Mikolas, and Nick Martinez that have yet to show anything even close to a solid 5th starter. Yes, I just slammed them all, especially Tepesch as he has had plenty of opportunity, but that ERA shows no consistency and his fast ball does not scare anyone. We keep hearing about the farm and how well they are doing, and there seems to be hope in Luke Jackson, projected to be a 3-4 starter, the 22-year-old Alex Gonzales who was just promoted to AA, Jake Thompson who was just acquired for Soria is a big boy with a strong arm. It would seem that he would be the next most likely candidate to make the next step soon.
The problems as I see it, is in looking at what is on the field now, and what is down on the farm, it just does not seem like this is the talent level that saw World Series appearances. It also seems that Daniels is banking too much on people coming back from injuries and counting on them to perform at a very high level. That is like betting the roulette wheel in my view, the odds are about 36-1 against unless you have a lot of chips covering a lot of numbers or you are really lucky. I just do not see enough chips on the table to cover the odds. Please don’t miss my point, there is talent, and some of that talent is going to be very good at the big league level, but as with all prospects not all of them hit, and some just will never be ready for prime time.
Think about it in NFL terms, of the 1st round draft picks this year, only about half will actually still be playing football in 3 years. Baseball has like 40 round drafts, and every year you hear about some kid from the 36th round who comes from nowhere. The Rangers farm is loaded down with a lot of talent, but only a handful get to make the final 25-man roster, and fewer still become the next Mike Trout or Pudge Rodriguez, and as of today there are no guarantees on any of them.
Standing pat on the trade deadline may have been smart, but what I wonder is if the Rangers think too much of their talent and need a dose of reality. That reality is in last place and a sub .400 winning percentage. It makes me wonder if the other GM’s weren’t seeing the same thing. Perception is an interesting proposition, especially if you think you are holding Aces and Kings, and it turns out you were holding a handful of nothing.
Payroll is a good subject for a later post, but the Rangers have a bunch of dollars guaranteed, those dollars are paid by butts in seats. Josh Hamilton was right about one thing, the Rangers are not the Dallas Cowboys, and the Rangers cannot “Jerry Rig It”, (seen in the Star Telegram), they need to sell tickets, and people will fill it up for the Yankees, or a winning team. Otherwise the wind and the foul balls rattle around a lot in Arlington.
So Daniels had better be right and not over-valued the hand, or this team will suffer for a long time with the missed opportunities. I just wonder if trading Beltre or Rios or both would have seen the team returning sooner to championship caliber, but I suppose that depends on what you thought they are worth to you as opposed to what they are worth to someone else.
The thing that crosses my mind is how would you feel if Nolan Ryan was still here? Would you feel better about the hand your holding, or have doubt as I do now. Credibility is the key, and John Daniels still doesn’t inspire confidence, or is that a perception issue too.
