There are a couple of ways to look at the quickly approaching spring training for the Rangers in Surprise Arizona. With competition at almost every position, does that mean that the Rangers lack talent, or are they deep in talent? What is the difference between being deep and being talented?
One thought process is that if you have an 8-man depth chart that means you do not have any clear starters. That is not correct, because we know that the team has Yu Darvish and Derek Holland, if both have fully recovered from injuries and are ready to go. The addition of Yovani Gallardo on the surface looks like a brilliant addition, except for just about every fantasy baseball writer in the country is advising against putting him on your fantasy team. Since the 2013 season, Gallardo owns a 3.84 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP; he has struck out only 290 batters in 373 innings. He isn’t yet age 30, but one writer says that his career feels like it is in full decline mode. At best, he is#3 in the rotation, but most feel he is a four or five. If that writer is correct, that means Colby Lewis and his bionic parts would rate as the #3 starter. The official depth chart on the Rangers website www.texas.rangers.mlb.com has them listed as follows:
- Yu Darvish
- Derek Holland
- Nick Martinez
- Yovani Gallardo
- Colby Lewis
- Ross Detwiler
- Nick Tepesch
- Lisalverto Bonilla
If that is the way it truly turns out, then that is good news because it means that one of the Nicks (Martinez) is ready to elevate his game to the next level. It means instead of a nice fill in player in the back of the rotation, he is ready to be handed the ball every fifth day.
The questions are: Does this team figure to be competitive this year? Do they plan just to get back to .500? Is this just a continuation of rebuilding and waiting on the next youth movement?
There is no doubt, their is some serious potential in the farm system, and that talent is projected to be impactful starting in 2016. In my opinion any team that has what can be considered a true “Ace”, (Yu Darvish) has a shot to compete, and although there has been some negative thoughts about Derek Holland he has the potential to be as good a #2 starter as there is in all of baseball. That means if the team can somehow win 90 games and get to the playoffs, they would be competitive. Last week the Rangers signed a veteran, and former Ranger in Ryan Ludwig. This is another case of someone who may be able to help the team and give competition to a bunch of folks. He could be the DH, or play corner outfield. It is good to bring guys who are veterans to camp for competition, the young guys can learn, and if they are not playing at there best, then the veteran will beat them.
While the Rangers have eight competing for the starting five starting pitcher slots, they also have nine guys competing for just three outfield spots, and someone as a fourth. The team plans on bringing around 53 guys into spring training, and I am not sure any job is technically completely safe. Maybe Adrian Beltre, but everyone else is going to compete at least to some level. Yes, there are some high salary guys that the team is going to have expectations, such as Yu, Prince, Derek, Choo, Elvis, etc. However, given the injury situation last year, the team will anticipate considering everyone. The only obvious ones that are not likely to make the team are those top minor prospects such as, Joey Gallo, Jorge Alfaro, Luke Jackson, Nick Williams, and Alex Gonzalez. The franchise really wants them to have another full year in the minors with the goal of introducing them to the big league team this year, giving them a taste, then see if they can do something next year is the goal. Another interesting prospect is Jake Thompson, who may be ready sooner than expected, but most likely starts for AAA.
That seems like the plan for this spring; the Rangers want clear competition at every position. They want to push everyone, and they want the depth so as they do not repeat last year’s injury decimation. All of those are good things to point to, but it always comes down to one key element. Is the talent the Rangers are placing on the field better than the talent of the Mariners, Angels, A’s, and Astros?
The Mariners are going to be much improved, they have added to much talent not to be better. The Angels have made a few moves but figure to be about the same team that won the division in 2014, the Astros will be better as the team continues to grow up, but who knows what Billy Beane will put on the field. He could win 100 games or finish dead last. My thought is that this will be the most competitive the AL West has been in years. I think the Rangers have the deepest team, but I am not sure it is the most talented. Over 162 games, being deep is sometimes better because the teams leaning on their best players can wear them out. Injuries happen, and we all saw what happened last year when injuries mounted for the Rangers. That can happen to any team, but a team with a shallow talent pool cannot overcome the loss of even one let alone two key players. The Rangers set a record last year, but injuries are going to happen.
It is too early for a real projection; there are too many questions on health recovery still hanging from 2014. The bats need to wake up, and the team needs to start hitting the ball before I will be convinced. We can talk pitching and defense all day and there is no doubt that is how you win a title, but if you can pound the ball as the Giants did in the series, it really does not matter. The thing that so many people forget is the object of the game is to score more runs than the other team does. They had a single lights out pitcher, and rode him until the end too. Playoffs are like that, but the regular season is all about endurance. The Rangers fell to the bottom of the AL last year in runs scored, home runs, and several other key stats. The pitching staff suffered as saw the ERA bloom to pre 2009 levels. However, last year is over, and one of the biggest keys to this season is going to be Prince Fielder and Sin Soo Choo. Without those bats it will be a tough year or looking at the talent pool. In fact, I am not sure this team will be competitive if Fielder does not hit at least 30 long balls.
The talent pool for the Rangers looks deep, they have a tremendous mix of veterans and rookies coming into camp, and we are about to find out if it is any good or if they can find 25 guys to stick with all year. I will make one prediction, my guess is that there will be at least two players that will be a positive surprise this spring and force the team to make some hard decisions. Jake Thompson might be one, Jake Smolinski or Ryan Rua is candidates for a breakout spring. I also predict that someone, a fan favorite or someone getting paid more than they should, will not make the team. Mitch Moreland might be candidates there.
The irony of all of this is that for all the bashing that GM John Daniels has taken, he has certainly pooled a lot of possible talent around this group. Yet, because he did not do anything significant in the offseason or trade deadline last year, 2016 could be even more competitive because most of this group is under contract. This is a perfect situation for any franchise, so much talent that you have to make hard choices.
Who knows exactly what will happen, the coaching staff, scouts, and management has a lot of work ahead, but whatever the case, it will be interesting to see!
