We knew the Rangers were going to make a bunch of moves because guys were getting healthy.
The first move was to reinstate Josh Hamilton and send down Joey Gallo. Gallo, was certainly fun to watch in his MLB debut, clearly, he needs more work, and it sure didn’t take big league pitchers very long to figure out how to pitch to him. Make no mistake, he will be back and probably this season, and while I like Hamilton and see in him one of the most talented guys in baseball, we all know his body just cannot stand up to the strain. If he can get through the All-Star break without breaking something else, it will be a minor miracle. Meanwhile Gallo gets to play every day and work on some things. I would compare Gallo’s start to Mike Napoli, but I think his potential is much higher, still a .225 hitter who belts 40 home runs is not bad, but he does have the potential to hit for a better average, and his patience at the plate bodes well for the future.
One of the big surprises was the designation for assignment of Neftali Feliz. For a team that has one of the worst bullpen’s in all of baseball this was interesting. Feliz just never really has recovered from Tommy John surgery, his velocity never came back, nor did his control. The clock is ticking on trying to make a trade for him, but teams are typically not that interested in giving up something for someone who you have already let go. So don’t expect them to get much, if anything for him, and that is just sad for a former All-Star.
Delino DeShields has been activated from the DL, and Alberto Hanser sent down. I sure have seen many negative comments saying the Elvis should have been the one sent down. Again, I am going to defend Elvis Andrus, because while I agree he has been erratic and not hitting the ball, he is a veteran and a great clubhouse guy. He can do amazing things at times. He needs to get his head on straight and have a better second half of the season. Meanwhile, Hanser did very well and as with Joey Gallo, we will most likely see them again soon. DeShields may be the greatest Rule 5 pickup in the history of baseball, he is certainly exciting to watch.
The big news is the return of Matt Harrison who debuts tonight. His minor league rehab numbers are not great, but July got here quickly and the team was forced to activate him. One of the big problems with long-term guaranteed contracts is that a team is somewhat hamstrung if the player is not at the top of his game. They have to play him or release him, just as they did in the case of Feliz. Harrison thinks he is ready, but as has been written many times, given the type of surgeries he has had this is all new territory. Personally, I am excited for him to return, but realistically I am not expecting very much. Unlike Feliz who is fairly inexpensive, Harrison has big dollars and years left on his contract, and there is no way to let him get away yet.
They also activated Anthony Ranaudo again, and sent down Chi Chi Gonzalez. Chi Chi will be back, he just got an education that big league hitters figure out pitchers pretty quickly, just as pitchers figured out hitter, they figured out what to do to Chi Chi. Give him some time to work on some things and he will be back soon.
The biggest surprise to me was sending down Nick Martinez. In April and most of May he was clearly one of the best starters the team had. His 5-5 record and 3.42 ERA in 16 games were better than projected. He has struggled of late, but this move surprised. If the Rangers were considering making some trades involving him, it would seem illogical to send him down now.
Speaking of trades, the deadline is quickly approaching, but outside of Cole Hamels rumors, which have quieted, the only other rumor is the desire for the team to unload Sin Soo Cho, and to see what they can get for Wandy Rodriguez. I was thinking that the team might trade Martinez, and one of the star minor league guys for Hamels to stabilize the rotation, but that seems unlikely now. Instead, it appears that the team is going to limp into the All-Star break trying to figure out how to get the most out of what is here. You just never know with John Daniels, but dumping Choo would be extremely difficult. The $103 million left in salary is one big obstacle, the fact that he cannot play in the outfield another, and his restricted trade clause yet another.
The season is half over and the team is 41-43, 7-games out of first place. Many teams have come back from those types of deficits throughout baseball history, but to do that requires winning a bunch more than losing the rest of the season. The math is not hard, if you use the rule of 90 wins to be in playoff contention. The Astros have 49 wins so to get to 90 they need to win 41 of their remaining 77 games, which is a record of 41-36. For the Rangers to get to 90 wins, they would need to win 49 of their remaining 78, which would force them to go 49-29 the rest of the season. The odds of that happening are fading fast as going 20 wins over .500 seems nearly impossible for the team on the field now. However, for those that remember Money Ball, the Oakland A’s won 20+ consecutively just a few years ago, so nothing is impossible.
However, the team has only a single win in July and since June 20, the team record is 4-12 over those 16 games. The starting pitching disappeared, the bullpen irrelevant and the bats have gone silent. For the team to be relevant they must win at home as they have the worst record at home in franchise history to this point in the season. With all the moves, the team is unsettled, and needs to refocus. The pressure is on, but losing games by 8 to 12 runs is horrible.
As Randy Galloway sportswriter used to say, I am officially announcing a collapse warning. Just like with severe storms there are warnings, watches, and alerts. There is reason for serious concern as the team has been completely erratic, a horrible April, a great May and part of June, and a disastrous start to July show no consistency. Keep in mind that Martin Perez and Derek Holland will both be returning soon, but at this point, they would have to come back and be completely dominated, and guys like Elvis, Beltre, and Choo have to do what they have not done so far. The question will be for the next couple of weeks, are the Rangers buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? My prediction is that they will sell some veterans to make room for emerging youth. As I have maintained for the past two seasons, this team is gearing up for the 2016-2017 seasons and dumping some veterans might make that situation better if the team can get value in return.
Right now, I would bet John Daniels truly regrets signing Choo to that long-term deal, and if not for the massive amount of money, he would do just about anything to make him go away. Then again, when he signed Choo he seemed like the answer to their hitting problems and was supposed to be a high OBP guy, who had a little power. Someone failed to note he can’t play in the outfield, and he has been hurt too much to do anything consistent. The good news is that the Rangers have a ton of young options to replace him with, and if Daniels can figure out a trade it would be worth it over the long run, but the team will be saddled with part of his salary for the next 8-years if he leaves. Ouch!
On another note, it is interesting that since the Angels fired their GM the team has been incredible. Sometimes cleaning house does wonderful things, it certainly has for that team.
