The concept of being a half game back, because wins and losses are different considering numbers of games played has always been strange to me. The season has 162 games, which is long, and in the end you need to have one more win, and one less loss than the next team below you. It is also interesting as we come down to the final games of this 2015 season that the teams each have differing amounts of games remaining. The Rangers have 12 left, the Angels 11 games left, and the Astros are down to their final 10 games.
The reality is that it is much harder to make up ground with less games left. That is irrespective of head to head games. Take a look at this as an example:
Rangers current record is 81-69, if they were to go 6-6 in the final 12 games they would finish with 87 wins.
The Astros with a record of 80-72 would need to go 7-3 in their final games to tie, and 8-2 to win the division against a 6-6 record. The Angels would need to win 10 of 11, to tie, and all 11 to win the division. For every win above 7 for the Rangers the number of wins needed by either the Astros of Angels increases by 1.
The Rangers remaining schedule has 2-A’s, 3 Astros, 3 Tigers, and 4 Angels. Anything can happen in the final two weeks of this season, but if you look at probabilities, then the Rangers have a great shot. Most of us, even those of us that are die-hard fans had written the team off several times this season. Frankly, I thought they acquired Cole Hamels with an eye on next season when a combination of Darvish and Hamels looks crazy good. The team somehow responded to coach Bannister, and have put themselves in a great position to actually win the division. The reality is this if you are an Astros fan, your team can afford at most 3 losses the rest of the season. If you are an Angels fan, your team needs to just win them all. If you are a Rangers fan, seven wins of the final twelve pretty well seals the division. All of this is based on winning the division, as going the one game wild card route is just too risky.
MLB needs to change that to a 3-game playoff, it is just too unfair to expect to win a single game after playing 162.
One thing Ranger fans need to prepare for is that winning 6 in a row here is unlikely, which means that even if the Rangers win every series they may not be completely settled until the final couple of games of the season. Which brings us to the Magic Number theory, which as of today is at 10. For every Ranger win and opponents loss takes away a number. Meaning if the Rangers win five, and the Astros lose five, the Rangers win the division. In head to head games that is two points, meaning that 3-game series with the Astros is worth 6 Magic Numbers.
The bottom line is this, every single win is huge, and this team needs to just win now. One thing that I have truly liked that manager Jeff Bannister has done that Ron Washington did not do is use his bench in September. With 40 players available to him, he is doing his own math to put the best match-ups possible in play. He knows how to win, and is willing to throw players out there and put them in situations to be successful. He does not leave players on the bench for a fan club.
The Rangers have a legitimate shot, and if they can get to the post season, anything is possible.
All season long people have written this Rangers team off with no possibility of success, yet here they are leading the division with a chance at the postseason. Just remember to never assume anything as demonstrated with the immortal words of Yogi Berra who died today, “It a’int over til its over”, and neither is this season.
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