Opening Week Projections

As a weekly feature, I’ll project how the Rangers will fare. With the schedule not opening until Friday this will be a short, albeit exciting week.

Expectations are running high for both clubs, as the defending AL Champions host everyone’s favorite to represent the American League in the 2011 fall classic. C.J. Wilson has earned the nod to anchor the staff for the home team coming off his first full major league season in the rotation. Jon Lester takes the bump for the visiting BoSox, coming off a 19 win season with 9.74 K/9 and a 2.71 K/BB ratio, both of which are outstanding. Game two of the series puts UTA product John Lackey against the only pitcher to ever win a playoff home game for the Rangers (and he has three of them), Colby Lewis. Lackey had a very disappointing 2010 for his new team, but he is still very capable of shutting down good lineups. His strikeouts were down and his walks were up, and if he can get both of those closer to his career number he could very well have a bounce back year. Lewis had his own bounce back year last year, proving that his success in Japan could translate to the major leagues and now he looks to repeat his success. On paper, game three doesn’t look very promising for the home team, as Boston’s young gun, Clay Buchholz takes the mound against southpaw Matt Harrison. Last year, Buchholz finally turned potential into production and won 17 games with an ERA just north of 2.00. He limited opposing batters to a batting average on balls in play of .261 which is well below the league average, so we’ll see if he was lucky last year or if he can prove that was no fluke. He certainly has the stuff to continue that. Harrison has showed glimpses of being a good major league starter, but injuries and hittability have hindered his ability to hold down his spot in the rotation. He had a very strong Spring and impressed the organization with his new aggressive mindset, so we will see how that translates to the regular season.
Texas will be sending out an improved offensive and defensive lineup from their World Series season of 2010, inserting Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli (and Yorvit Torrealba), and a full season of Mitch Moreland to replace Vlad Guerrero who slumped badly in the second half of the year, and the mediocre (at best) contributions of Matt Treanor, Bengie Molina, Chris Davis, and Justin Smoak. Texas looks to have BY FAR the best defensive left side of the infield with Gold Glover caliber defenders Beltre and Elvis Andrus, plus Ian Kinsler and Moreland on the right side, who are no slouches themselves.
Boston lost Beltre, of course, but did add Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, plus they can’t possibly suffer the injuries they did last year again. They are anticipated to be among the top teams in the league offensively and defensively. The only real holes in their lineup are Marco Scutaro and J.D. Drew, and both of those were among the cream of the crop at their positions when they were signed as free agents.
The bullpen was a major strength for the Rangers last year, and with Feliz remaining in the closer role that isn’t expected to change. Ogando joins the rotation (for now) so that’s a setup man who is removed, but the team has high expectations for Mark Lowe, plus the additions of Mason Tobin and Arthur Rhodes deepen an already strong pen. Boston had a strong back end as it was with Jonathon Papelbon and Daniel Bard, but adding Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler gives them excellent depth as well.
In my opinion, these are the top two teams in the American League and it’s a nice treat to have this matchup in Arlington to start the season. It’s not quite as exciting as the last three home games we saw, and certainly doesn’t mean as much, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a playoff atmosphere and very entertaining.

OPENING DAY!! Friday, April 1, 2011 Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers – Jon Lester vs. C.J. Wilson
I expect Texas to win a low scoring game in front of a raucous crowd. Lester historically has struggled in April so look for Texas to put a few runs on the board early and C.J. to minimize the damage of the Red Sox lineup through 7 strong. 5-2 Rangers. Winning pitcher – C.J. Wilson Losing pitcher – Jon Lester Save – Neftali Feliz HR – Michael Young