John Daniels was interviewed by a local radio show recently, and he said that the success of this 2018 Rangers team is tied directly to the success of the starting pitching rotation. The team went into the off-season with only two starting pitchers in Cole Hamels and Martin Perez. What a mess, or a great opportunity, depends on one’s point of view.
This year’s free-agent market was not deep or particularly exciting. There were a bunch of names out there available, and a couple of pretty good price tags. Daniels chose to go cheap, cut payroll, and see what happens. Perhaps that strategy will pay off, but I wonder if a huge opportunity was missed.
The Rangers made a trade for Matt Moore, who was pretty good a few years ago, before surgery, but has not really emerged as he once was. They signed aging veteran Doug Fister to a very low-priced deal of just $4 million. They also signed Mike Minor, who was a starter years ago, had surgery and performed well in the Royals bullpen last season. In total the Rangers invested $22 million in these guys, to compliment Hamels and Perez.
Meanwhile the overall payroll has been reduced to $144 million in 2018 from $186 million in 2017. We all should know by now that money doesn’t necessarily buy championships. What should be considered is a look at the future.
In Daniels mind he is thinking of how much it will cost to keep Nomar Mazara, and Joey Gallo. He is also thinking that there is a very good chance that the players will strike over the CBA next year, mainly because of how players in free agency were treated this off-season. This should have been a great opportunity for the Rangers to bridge the gap between when the farm is ready to pop, the new stadium opens, and help this team be relevent for the next decade.
Yes, they could have signed Yu Darvish for $21 million, and Jake Arrieta for $25 million, and doing so would have secured the rotation through the year 2022. Adding both of those guys would have provided a solid 1-2-3 punch for the rotation of strong veteran starters who can eat innings, and win games. However, that would have added $46 million back to the payroll.
But wait a minute, the payroll was reduced from $186 to $144, right? Not being a math genius, isn’t that $44 million less? So for a mere $2 million, less than they invested in Josh Hamilton to return and maybe one day play again, they could have had both of those guys!
Okay, so that does not allow for the 5th starter, but surely they can find that guy.
I certainly understand that money is money, and until Prince Fielder, Sin Soo Choo, and believe it or not they are still paying for a portion of A-Rod’s contract, and all of that must go away.
Another factor is that sources report that the team has tried to reach long-term deals with Gallo, Mazara, and DeShields, and all declined because of the pending CBA mess. It would appear that there has been a miscalculation somewhere. Or perhaps there is a reason Adrian Beltre was so outspoken in his desire to see the club spend money on pitching this year.
I think that Rangers fans will look back on this off-season as a pivotal franchise moment. This team could’ve bridged a gap, and put the club on a sustainable course to being relevant for a long time. I think they chose to go cheap because they will still draw 2 million fans, and they can always hope that these guys they brought in will do better than what their recent track records show. They should’ve spent the money they needed to win, or at least give them a chance to win. If they would’ve done that, this season would sure have a different outlook than it does today.
My guess is that the team will not be as horrible as one sports writer who predicted a 100 loss season. I fully expect the starting rotation to have an ERA above 4.50, and finish in the bottom third of the league. Part of that is coaching, and part of it is personnel. Both are inadequate to compete with good teams for the foreseeable future.
The Astros are good, very good, and should dominate everyone. However, in a 162 game season anything can happen. The Rangers should have had a great team back in 2014, but lost 100 games because the entire starting rotation was injured.
Having said all of that my prediction for this season is 74 wins. They will most likely do their best to trade Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Sin Soo Choo, and just about anyone else by mid-season. Daniels will end up blowing up this team. Sadly he just did not have to, because if he had spent just $2 million more than last year this team would have been competitive.
Could’ve, Would’ve, Should’ve……now we wait to see if I am right.
Oh well, I still love baseball, and I love the Texas Rangers!
