Opening Day of the start of the 2019 season is just a couple of days away, and I know all baseball fans everywhere are excited. As hope and excitement build it is easy to over-estimate what your team can do instead of what we hope they do. The hope as always is to win a World Series, but realistically what are the expectations for this years Rangers team?
Realistically this team would have to overachiever beyond all reason to be competitive. This team is in transition, development, re-building mode, whatever you want to call it. I like transition because that seems like a better way of describing it. Any team that begins the year with 5 pitchers all of which are rehab projects, but veterans cannot be completely taken seriously at face value.
As hopes spring eternal miracles do happen otherwise the 1980 Olympic Hockey team does not bring home a gold medal. We can hope for a miracle, but it is better to go into the season with eyes wide open.
The other reality is that this young core group of hitters is very similar to those the team started gathering in 2008-2009 just before a couple of World Series runs. Gallo, Mazara, DeShields, Guzman, and Odor would compare with a young Hamilton, Kinsler, Elvis, Cruz, Moreland, and Murphy.
I can hear howling outrage over those comparisons, but seriously everyone thought Hamilton was just a drug addict who would blow up. The book on Kinsler was that he popped up too much and had poor pitch selection, Elvis was considered to erratic to ever hit consistently but good defender. Cruz was considered an all or nothing hitter much like Gallo is.
Sometimes it just takes patience for these guys to figure it out. The starting rotation during those championship years was filled with head cases, and guys that came out of the bullpen to convert to starters. Not one of those guys was truly a lights out pitching ace, yet all they did in 2011-2012 is finish top 5 in innings pitched by starters with a top 5 ERA each year. Remember the names, Wilson, Harrison, Ogando, Lewis, and Holland?
The starting rotation this season has the potential and previous track record to do match that. If there was not so many arm issues several of these guys could be considered All-Star caliber players. All of them Volquez, Minor, Smyly, Miller, and Lynn have pitched in big games, are established veterans, and have a track record of success. If there arms hold together they could be this years biggest surprise in baseball history. I would compare them very favorably to the championship group in 2011 if not for the arm concerns.
Realistically, the goal for this years team is player development for these young batters and fielders to see if this group can be the next wave of All-Stars for the Rangers. If the pitching can just be a little consistent and eat up innings this team can be competitive.
Get ready for some frustration as baseball has changed. Gallo is going to strike out a lot, so is Odor but they are going to hit some epic long balls. The trick is to see if they continue to work on hitting the ball to the opposite field. Baseball math is going to be in full view for Rangers fans as the computer will tell them who to pitch, when, and for how long, and which players have the better chance against opposing hitters and where to place them in the field. It is up to the new Rangers skipper to interpret the data, and leave his gut feelings alone.
I like this team, I like what the Rangers are building on the farm. I like the pitching depth on the farm and we will see a large number of those guys as the season goes through a 162 game schedule.
Realistic Goals:
72 Wins
750 Runs scored
Finish top 5 in the AL in batting average
Reduce strikeouts by 10%
Starting pitching ERA below 4.00
Bullpen ERA below 3.50
Team ERA 3.75 or better
All of these are achievable and milestone goals if the team is truly on a good path. It will be a fun and entertaining 162 game season and the last season at Globe Life Park. If this experiment goes well, the future for the organization and franchise will be on an up tick. What this team must do is give that young pitching time to develop fully on the farm. If they succeed in doing that without bringing those guys too soon, that will be best goal achieved for 2019.
I always make a prediction, before the season, and I will this year too. As a lifelong Rangers fan I can see this season going south in a bad way. However, my eternal optimism says that some of those rebuilt starters are going to be better than expected. I am going to predict this team finishes with 79 wins, and be better than both Seattle and Oakland.
I predict a breakout year for Mazara, and Odor and that Kiner-Falefa will be the everyday catcher by mid-season. Lance Lynn has impressed me in Spring Training and I see him as this team version of Colby Lewis. Overall this team has much more potential than many give them credit and in baseball anything can happen.
