My good friend and creator of The Ranger Report came out last week saying, the Rangers should not be buying. Instead, they should hold the course. Perhaps Ben is correct but there are a few considerations. First, any team looking to make a playoff run needs 4 starting pitchers of quality who can carry the team. The Rangers have two in Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, and Rangers fans will remember that they traded Cole Hamels last season and did not sign Martin Perez this season.
Hamels, now playing with the Cubs has delivered a 2.98 ERA, has a 6-3 record and has thrown 99 innings so far this season, which would be huge for the Rangers. He would have cost the team $20 million this season and neither Rollie Lacy nor Eddie Butler acquired for Hamels is playing in 2019, so essentially all the Rangers did last season is dump his salary.
Martin Perez was released by the Rangers, thus allowing him to pursue free agency. He signed with the Twins, who are still in 1st place in the AL Central. Perez has an 8-3 record, with a 4.26 ERA and has thrown 95 innings for the Twins. The Rangers received nothing for him except cutting $6 million in salary. Granted a 4.26 ERA is a tad on the high side, but 95 innings is by definition at this point of the season an innings eater.
Instead, the Rangers this off-season signed 3 players all trying to return from Tommy John surgery, which was risky, but it was cheap, and Jon Daniels has never shied away from low-cost high potential reward players. Unfortunately, none of those starting pitchers has worked out. Shelby Miller and Drew Smyly were cut, and Edinson Volquez is listed as injured but nobody really expects him to return. Cumulatively these guys brought very few good innings to the team and gave up a truckload of runs. Thus the complete failure of Plan A.
Despite the pitching failures of those veterans the team has had a highly unexpected first half of the season with a 48-42 record at the All-Star break. This is especially exciting considering the team finished with 95 losses last season and had zero expectations from most this season. The hope was that at least one of those rehab project guys would be serviceable for some innings and that Mike Minor or Lance Lynn would be trade bait to restock the farm system at the trade deadline. New manager Chris Woodward and his staff deserve high praise for their work so far this season.
The Rangers are smack in the middle of the Wild-Card race after winning 17 games in the month of June, and just splitting a series with the Astros to start the second half of the season. That winning record came despite losing 3 of the final 4 series before the All-Star break. The team should have had a solid record in June, it was the weakest part of the schedule, and it could have been better than it turned out, except the hitting let the team down just a tad just before the break.
There has been a ton of surprises this season headlined with the breakout season of Joey Gallo, who smashed what turned out to be the game-winning run into the right-field bleachers during the All-Star game. Frankly, I think he should have been the MVP, but since he hit the first pitch he saw, and Joe Buck never even noticed he hit it out because he never stopped talking, I assume that is why he didn’t get the credit, it happened too fast.
Other giant factors have been the play of Hunter Pence, Mike Minor, and the re-emergence of Lance Lynn. The disappointments have been at the catcher position as neither Kiner-Falefa nor Mathis have produced anything special offensively, but are decent defensively. Roughned Odor has been shockingly horrific batting. Delino DeShields had to go back to the minors again to regain his form. However, Sin-Soo Choo and Elvis have anchored the team with professionalism and consistency.
The month of July will determine this season. They play the Astros a ton of games and there are no more easy schedules going forward. The Rangers would need to win 42 of the final 72 games to get to 90 wins, (58%) and to be in contention for the Wild Card I think it would take that many wins. They are not going to beat the Astros for the division title unless a miracle happens or the team from Houston is beset with massive injuries. Let’s hope not, the Astros are really good and we need a team from Texas to represent, but there is no reason that the odds of Texas being represented could be increased.
The goal, however, should be to make the playoffs with this team. The emergence of Adrian Sampson and Ariel Jurado gives hope for the future. Frankly, it would have been better if those guys could have played the first half of the season at AAA Nashville, but since they are here and having some success that makes the future look bright. Hamels and Perez still being on the team with a new manager might have allowed for more time for their growth and development, and it is hard for me to let go of the past. This is especially true since I disagreed with the trade last year, just as I disagreed with trading Yu Darvish. I have a long memory for bad decisions.
One thing that does not need to continue is Jesse Chavez in the starting rotation. He is more valuable in my opinion coming from the bullpen. Since Jose Leclerc has struggled early, his role has changed and having Chavez at the back-end of the pen is better for everyone.
It is time for the Rangers to go to Plan B because trading Minor, Lynn or others for prospects would be devastating to fans who buy tickets. It would kill any chance at being competitive and would send the wrong message to the team. There are players that have a ton of trade value and Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo would top the list, along with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. The organization could pile up a ton of prospects if they wanted to rebuild just off those four. It would be foolish to let those guys go unless there was an even bigger player to be gained in return. Bigger names, cost bigger money, so keep the guys you have that are performing and add pieces where you can, has always been a good strategy.
The team needs to be looking to add a starting pitcher. There are a bunch out there, and if Jon Daniels could make a solid move with a controllable player that could really pump up this team. Again, they had that player and traded him for essentially nothing. They could also trade for a catcher that can hit. However, I would point out that Mathis work behind the plate is probably one of the reasons for the pitching development and success so far this season.
The hard decision is determining how far the team is willing to go into the farm system to get that 3rd solid starting pitcher? Are the Rangers willing to give up their crown jewels of the farm system, including pitchers Hans Crouse, Joe Palumbo, Jonathan Hernandez, and Cole Winn, infielder Anderson Tejeda or outfielders Julio Pablo Martinez, Bubba Thompson, or Leody Taveras? Would they be willing to trade Willie Calhoun or would he bring anything decent in return?
My take is that for the right player they would sell the farm. However, for this team to be ultimately competitive they would need to upgrade for more than a starting pitcher. They would need an upgrade at 2B, C, add a starter, probably two starters, and a true closer for the bullpen. The fact is that this team can make a run at the playoffs and can be competitive the rest of the season despite having needs and holes in the lineup. If the team wins just half of the final 72 games, they will have a winning record and finish with 83 wins. Most of us that follow the team know that winning 83 games is a reason to make Chris Woodward manager of the year. I predicted 79 wins this season, which was higher than Ben forecasted, but the team has a chance to make us both wrong, and I know I will accept that.
My take is that Plan B should be to do everything possible to acquire that 3rd rotation guy who can deliver innings and wins. That guy needs to be controllable for at least next season too. Keep in mind that it should be easier to attract players going forward. After all beginning, next season no more summer heat as the games will all be indoors. A prospect on the farm is just that a prospect, but if they can turn that into a productive player that would be better.
I just wonder how many are questioning trading Cole Hamels last season. Personally, I wish he was here but I think he had lost interest and faith in this team. It is probably better that he moved on, but it sure would be nice to have a player of his caliber to help finish this season. I wonder how many more wins this team would have had if he were still here. Instead, what the franchise did once again is trade, a high-value player for nothing, when the team in Arlington needs it the most. Personally, I was not a big believer in Martin Perez, but for $7 million and 95 innings and a winning record, I think that is a very nice #5 for a starter.
Yes, the team should make a trade, the right trade, and no they do not have to devastate the farm to make that trade. How about trading Joe Pulombo, and a couple of relievers from the farm for a starter? The team has a plethora of outfield prospects on the farm, and those guys should have high value too.
I think Rangers fans can accept the starting players we have, but a boost of confidence in acquiring a starter could be all it takes for the Rangers to make a run. Consider what acquiring Cliff Lee for the franchise, that catalyst caused the team to go to their first World Series. I can hear you groaning, but it is just for a Wild Card spot. Former Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said getting to the tournament is the most important thing. I agree you cannot win a title if you don’t make the tournament. Sometimes the baseball God’s do smile on your team, and anything can happen in baseball.
Additionally, while it is super to stockpile the farm, maybe even essential to the longevity of a club. The Rangers have both Minor and Lynn for next season along with Jurardo and Sampson, this means that adding to major league pitching to open the new park next season should be a priority. Another baseball adage is that you can never have enough pitching help. Jon Daniels has said that too, but this team has a shot to be competitive now and for the next few years with the right additions.
Forget staying the course; go find a contract controllable pitcher that can help. Move Chavez or Sampson back to the bullpen, and lets at least try to finish strong. To do anything else is Un-American, because all true Americans love a winner, and will not tolerate a loser. (George Patton) Nothing is truly more American than baseball, and Texas is the greatest place to be, so Jon Daniels it is time to make a good trade. It is time for Plan B, so do not sell the farm go buy something that makes this happen!!!
