Depending on the sports writer, analytics, and whomever else you listen to it could be another losing season to just barely making the playoffs.
At this point, we know the Rangers have a very special starting rotation, but everyone puts a caveat of “if they stay healthy”. That is the case with every team in baseball, but these pitchers do have a little more history with injuries than others do. I am not buying that argument, but I will say that hard throwers typically have shorter shelf life than those that throw with less velocity.
If writers are going to discuss history then take a trip back to 1982 and the team that the Rangers had that finished 2nd in their division. The 1982 season was strike shortened, but still the team had signed Jon Matlack and Doc Medich, and still had Fergie Jenkins, a young Rick Honeycutt, and Danny Darwin to round out the starting rotation. Matlack, was widely regarded as one of the top pitchers in baseball with Medich and Jenkins in the discussion. All strong veterans.
That setup produced a team ERA of 3.40, but no starter had over 150 innings, which was mostly due to the strike and partially due to injuries. The team batting average was .270 that season with Buddy Bell hitting .294 and Al Oliver a solid .309.
That was the first year that the team had invested heavily in pitching including in the bullpen with the addition of hard throwing lefty Jim Kern.
Overall the 1982 season should be considered a success but they could not find a way to beat the A’s, despite winning 60% of their games. There were no wild cards back then, and there were only two division, the East, and the West.
The parallels between this team and the 1982 team are the signings of multiple starting pitchers, other free agents, and making a few trades to bolster the roster. After 1982, the team did not continue that approach and went back to buying under the radar players, as they could, and trying to develop from within after that season.
This season is different, because the 40-man roster is crowded and there is depth in the starting rotation. The team weaknesses are in other areas this season.
Those weaknesses are the early injury to CF Tavares, unknown is what will be produced in left field, a rookie with a lot of potential playing 3B, team defense, a few bullpen question marks, and not having a true closer for the bullpen. That list sounds worse than it actually is, because no team has everything they need, but having another Josh Hamilton in the lineup would sure help (guys like that are difficult to find). What the Rangers of 2023 have are some very nice players including Garcia, Semien, Seager, and Lowe as your front four. This team has a ton of speed, that speed should allow them to swipe a ton of basis while manufacturing runs. I also, expect them to be in the top 5 in the AL in home runs. The mix of older veterans and youth should help this team and produce more upside too.
Very few teams will benefit more from the new rules of larger bases, no infield shift, and limited throws to hold runners than the Rangers will.
Considering the depth of the rotation the team could easily lower the team ERA by a whole point below last years.
The 2022 Rangers had a horrid 18-37 record in one-run games. This team will be better, and having a professional manager late in games will help with that too. A good manager, and Bruce Bochy certainly has the record to prove it; can make the difference in 5-7 wins a year. If the team is just 12 games better in 1 run games, and win 5 more because of the manager, that is 17 wins to add to last year’s 60 total wins. Most sports writers are probably smart enough to stop there and say 77-78 wins sounds like a nice improvement.
However, what is also possible as the season progresses is that this team will be buyers as the trade deadline approaches. They have a ton of talent on that 40-man roster, and some of that talent should be in the major leagues now but are blocked by Semien, Seager, and others. That creates the perfect value for trade acquisitions. The Rangers are going to have to promote or lose those players so they need to get value where they can.
I am also going on record to say that the defense will be much better than it was last year. The trademark of Bruce Bochy teams in his career success is team defense and pitching. Anyone who knows baseball knows that pitching and defense are how to win championships. Of course, a team needs timely hitting too, but a championship team is good in all three phases of the game, but without good pitching and defense, a team is not going to win a title.
The biggest concern to me is the schedule as the team moves into July, August, and September. Since, the divisions are playing each other less this season the Rangers face more teams with winning records instead of getting to play the A’s 19 times. In July, every team they play will most likely be in the playoff hunt. In August the Rangers only play the White Sox, A’s, and D-backs who may not have winning records. In September, with the exception of 3 home games against the A’s, every team they play should also be in the playoff hunt. There are no easy teams to bolster the record in July or in September.
However, the Astros, Angels, Mariners, and A’s all have to play those same teams all season long too. This tells me that 85 wins might be good enough to win the division. If the other writers are already at 78 wins, it is not a stretch to believe just 7-more-wins is possible.
I am going all in and saying that this team will compete for the AL West title and that 85 wins is possible. If the Rangers can produce a winning record in April and May, I expect them to make trades to upgrade with bullpen help or a big bat. If that happens, then the Rangers might scare the Astros and win the division.
Remember this is a marathon of a season, and the past curses are lifted with all new management. A 90-win season might be a stretch, but everything about this team is so incredibly positive. I have been close in my predictions every year, but we have not had a winning team in 6-seasons. I like this 2023 team and cannot wait to see what all 162 games have to show us fans! Put me down for 85 wins!
